Race planning, pacing strategy, and the physics behind faster triathlon finishes.
Three athletes on IRONMAN Lake Placid — bike IFs come back 0.70, 0.66, 0.56. Low numbers, no headroom. Here's why Placid caps the bike low and how all three run plans arrive past their own budget.
Cae
Three athletes on IRONMAN 70.3 Bolton — a harder bike is the right call on 783 m, if power stays steady. Why, and how the answer differs by athlete.
Cae
We modelled three athletes on the IRONMAN Texas course using the race-week forecast. Same race, same day — three completely different outcomes. The finding: 100% of the run degradation is heat-driven.
Cae
A triathlon isn't three events. Start with the run, set the bike around what it can absorb, and connect every target to the conditions.
Cae
Performance starts dropping over 22°C and humidity makes it worse. How heat compounds across the bike and run — and why the bike hides it.
Cae
Same FTP on two different courses produces two completely different races. Elevation, wind, and shelter change what every watt is worth.
Cae
Two riders with identical power, identical IF, and similar run fitness finish with run splits forty minutes apart. IF, VI, and TSS explain why.
Cae
The run didn't break because you ran too hard. Swim debt, bike fatigue, and compounding decisions determine your marathon before you start it.
Cae